Betting Bad Part 7: Costly Cash Out Commitment

One of my cardinal rules of this betting series is that we absolutely do not cash out. It doesn’t reflect the purity of a good bet and leads to indecision and stress. That being said, if I had cashed out last weekend on the 80th minute mark, I’d have turned my £5 bet into round about a £20 profit, a tidy sum baring in mind the end goal was £34.57. A late goal by Reading against Derby County, as well as a late strike from Arbroath against top of the league Raith meant that my bet crumbled at the end, a disappointing finish to a promising bet. Unfortunately for myself, the purpose of this betting series lived on.

For those readers new to Betting Bad, I will give you the briefest of introductions. Basically, here at Betting Bad, I am very conscious that I am a bad better, I make poor decisions and of all the betting pages online, I am not the one to follow to make your millions. What I do offer, however, is who to avoid. In an average three or four fold, I rarely win, so it makes sense for you to read my picks, read my reasoning and then actively avoid my ideas. Simple!

While I was let down by Derby and Raith at the end of last weekend, there was some solace in Wigan beating Rochdale, and St Mirren beating Brechin City. Two correct results from four isn’t great reading, but to be on with a chance of winning big until the 80th minute is promising. But I am sure 95% of you aren’t fussed about the analysis of last week’s bets, beyond a simple win/loss update. So let us get stuck in on this week’s selections!

WATFORD v West Brom 21/20

Okay, I admit that putting your hard earned cash on Watford is a risky game. They sit 10th in the Premier League and their form reads LDWLW, including terrific wins over Chelsea and Everton either side of a disappointing slip up against West Ham. So why would I stake my fiver on them? That is because they are playing West Brom, who have lost four games on the bounce and have a squad in turmoil, after on field leaders like Gareth Barry and Jonny Evans played up that classic Brit abroad mentality on a recent team building exercise in Barcelona, getting royally pissed and stealing a taxi. Facing the battering ram of Troy Deeney and the tenacity of Etienne Capoue, West Brom could be in for a torrid time on Saturday afternoon. Besides, it’s always fun to bet against Alan Pardrew.

MILLWALL v Sunderland 8/13

I have never exactly been a fan of Sunderland, but I have always held a healthy respect for any team such as the Black Cats who have the potential to fill out a big stadium with their passionate fan base. They have been on a steady decline for years now and their fortunes have not changed in the slightest since taking Chris Coleman from the Welsh national team. With all due respect to Millwall, I am not picking them based on anything really, I am really just betting against Sunderland, which is fair. At the start of the season their own midfielder Darron Gibson drunkenly slurred that his team were f*****g s**t after a heavy pre season defeat, and quite frankly, it is really hard to argue that point. I really struggle to see Sunderland making the long trip home on Saturday evening intact.

Rochdale v PLYMOUTH 21/10

For the second week in a row, I am betting against Rochdale, it certainly worked last week. But this bet is far from an indictment on Rochdale, this is due to the exceptional form that Plymouth have been displaying lately. A few months ago they couldn’t buy a win and looked a certainly to go down. Now, they are the form team in the country and have a real chance to go up through the playoffs. Derek Adams has transformed the Green Army and made them an unstoppable force of late. One of my cardinal betting rules is to avoid a team if it is too good to be true. I don’t understand how Plymouth are overs for this game, but they are, so enjoy it!

Forfar v RAITH 4/7

Raith are gunning for the league title and are within a couple of games of doing so. Throw into the mix that Forfar are being dragged into a relegation battle and the pieces are in place for a large Raith win. I will be honest, though. In case you live under a rock, or outside the UK, then you’ll know that there is a bit of adverse weather floating about. I do not for a second think that this match will actually take place, but as this article is written on a Thursday evening, I can only predict games from a football point of view. As such, I predict that Lewis Vaughn will score a shedload of goals, as usual, to push his side to the title.

Bet slip

WATFORD v West Brom 21/20

MILLWALL v Sunderland 8/13

Rochdale v PLYMOUTH 21/10

Forfar v RAITH 4/7

£5 bet placed at 15.13/1 returns £80.66

So the elation of my win a couple of weeks ago has somewhat diminished after last week’s cruel late defeat. But I am jumping back on the horse, giving you guys and gals a clear insight into the teams you would do well to avoid. Usually the picks are a little more straightforward, but betting on Watford, Millwall and Plymouth still feels like a risk, despite the form of either those teams or their opposition. As always, feel free to tweet @ByFarBlog with your own bet slips for the weekend, and feel free to criticise my ludicrous ideas!

Money spent so far: £30

Winnings: £53.08

Profit – Loss: £27.08

Gamble responsibly folks.