{"id":1314,"date":"2012-09-05T09:00:19","date_gmt":"2012-09-05T08:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.byfarthegreatestteam.com\/?p=1314"},"modified":"2012-09-04T23:08:00","modified_gmt":"2012-09-04T22:08:00","slug":"can-sunderland-fans-be-happy-with-their-summer-transfer-business","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.byfarthegreatestteam.com\/posts\/can-sunderland-fans-be-happy-with-their-summer-transfer-business\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Sunderland fans be happy with their summer transfer business?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>John McCormick<\/strong>\u00a0has been giving a lot of thought to Martin O\u2019Neill\u2019s dealings in the transfer market and the part a study of football economics, with a title and at least one turn of phrase to make you wince, may have played in guiding his hand\u2026<\/em><\/div>\n

Now that<\/strong>\u00a0the transfer window has closed how do you feel?<\/p>\n

No doubt you\u2019re happy but if, like me, you\u2019ve recently read\u00a0Soccernomics<\/em>, by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski, you could even be smug. I don\u2019t agree with everything they say but the book\u2019s well worth a read.<\/p>\n

Despite the occasional log-log graph and phrases such as the \u201cavailability heuristic\u201d it is generally written in simple language with enough in it to mesh with fans\u2019 experience and make it interesting.<\/p>\n

One of the first chapters is about the transfer market being an inefficient system. By this the authors mean that there\u2019s a very poor correlation between a club\u2019s net spending on transfers and how well it does.<\/p>\n

We all know through experience that spending a lot of money doesn\u2019t guarantee success, now the calculations bear us out. Liverpool, for example managed to accrue a net transfer spend of \u00a3122m under Houllier and Benitez with little league success while Man Utd spent \u00a327m to win three titles in the same period.<\/p>\n

Moreover, as most managerial tenures are short, many high profile players tend to be bought and then sold before the expiration of their contract by a new manager who wants to implement a new system.<\/p>\n

Kuper and Szymanski more or less prophesied what would happen after Hodgson left Liverpool \u201cby mutual consent\u201d. Dalglish spent big on Carroll and Henderson but the team didn\u2019t perform to expectations so he was moved on; the new manager who came in (Rogers) said Carroll could go, which he did, potentially losing the club money in the process. Soccernomics 1, Liverpool 0.<\/p>\n

There is a much stronger correlation between the amount spent on wages and success. The more clubs pay the better teams seem to do. The reason is simple \u2013 the better a player is the higher the wage he can command, and having the best players usually gets you the best results.<\/p>\n

Putting all this together means that it\u2019s usually better to spend your money on growing then keeping good players as opposed to buying new ones. Unless, of course, you can emulate Cloughie and Brian Taylor. They proved to be masters of the market. They bought cheap, developed players and sold them at the right time, often at a profit.<\/p>\n

In doing so they raised a middle-of-the-road club to champions of Europe.<\/p>\n

When it comes to transfers the authors offer some advice. Some of it can be summarised as: don\u2019t let a new manager waste money on transfers.<\/p>\n

* Don\u2019t buy<\/strong>\u00a0stars of recent competitions as they will be overvalued. Kuper and Szymanski maintain such players are often judged over this small sample of games. They are then bought for inflated fees, only to disappoint in club football. This is one aspect of the \u201cavailability heuristic\u201d where recent information stays in the memory and influences decisions.<\/p>\n

* Older players<\/strong>\u00a0are overvalued; the best time to buy a player is in his early 20s.<\/p>\n

* Sell<\/strong>\u00a0any player when the offer is more than he is worth. Be ruthless.<\/p>\n

* Forwards<\/strong>\u00a0are overvalued.<\/p>\n

Applying these ideas to MON\u2019s reign to date leaves me feeling very optimistic. He has played the transfer market well. He didn\u2019t go overboard in the January transfer window, nor has he gone overboard in this one.<\/p>\n

He addressed a need in August by bringing in out-of contract Saha on a one year deal. Saha\u2019s age is against him but with no transfer fee and no long-term contract he has to be worth a punt, given his experience and record. This gave us breathing space \u2013 maybe it also helped us put a bit of pressure on the Wolves board \u2013 in dealing with the critical issue of getting in a youngish, top-class striker for the long term.<\/p>\n

I have faith in Wickham and Campbell (although the Mirror reported the latter\u2019s contract wouldn\u2019t be renewed) but no one can doubt our need and Saha didn\u2019t fit that long-term perspective.<\/p>\n

Could we get one, or even two, young forwards? Apart from Andy Carroll strikers seemed in short supply this summer, so Fletcher was the target and the subject of drawn out negotiation.<\/p>\n

Remember the\u00a0Soccernomics<\/em>\u00a0advice about goalscorers being overvalued? Should MON have made a high offer right at the start of the window opening and got him early? The price, a reported \u00a312m with add-ons up to \u00a314m, wasn\u2019t too different from Wolves\u2019 original valuation and I remember Peter Reid saying if you miss the pre-season you miss the whole season. He was talking about injured players but it\u2019s still a niggle at the back of my mind.<\/p>\n

At 25 Fletcher\u2019s not too old but only time will tell if MON paid too much. If he does turn out to fulfil expectations, and the omens are good, \u00a312-14m will be an excellent deal, given how much we got for Kenwyne.<\/p>\n

Then along came Adam Johnson for an undisclosed sum. Young and good, maybe not a forward in full striker mode but he\u2019ll do nicely, will he not?<\/p>\n

What else did MON do well?<\/p>\n

He brought in Danny Rose on loan. Is this a \u201csee how it goes\u201d move or just a strategy to give him more time to deal with the left back issue that\u2019s been dogging us? Either way, it\u2019s a good piece of work, as was bringing in Cuellar on a free.<\/p>\n

Did the availability heuristic have had an impact? I would argue it didn\u2019t. MON never went after anyone who shone in the Euros and I don\u2019t think Rose stood out in the Olympics. Having said that, did anyone shine in either competition? Ji did as well as anyone and maybe he will get more games this season.Cuellar, of course, came around the time of the Euros when there was talent on display and Rose did take part in the Olympics.<\/p>\n

MON moved people on. Perhaps he had little choice but to let Gyan go but whatever the truth is the club appears not to have lost out and I think, given Gyan\u2019s attitude, we got more than he was worth to us. Richardson wanted to leave and wasn\u2019t going to renew his contract. Like most fans I believe his diligent play over five years repaid the \u00a35m he cost and think that in these circumstances MON did a reasonable bit of business, as he did with Michael Turner, who also went for a reasonable sum.<\/p>\n

Another player, Elmo, hadn\u2019t really figured in MON\u2019s starting line-ups and it\u2019s hard to see him as a regular first-team choice given our other attacking options. Letting him go out on loan was a sensible decision even if he allegedly could play in defence, and it was equally sensible to get bit players such as Angeleri and, sad to say, Gordon, off the books.<\/p>\n

Other than that, while giving hope to the academy and development team by taking some novices on tour and giving them numbers, MON largely kept faith with the existing squad.<\/p>\n

For example, Titus remains with us. He was bought cheaply enough and with a year left on his contract he can prove his worth or be allowed to leave with little financial loss. Within that squad two of our best players, Sess and McClean, were given new contracts. According to Soccernomics, not to mention 40,000 fans, this is likely to be a better use of our money than\u00a0<\/em>spending on wholesale change.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to tell when different transfer figures are bandied about and many fees are not disclosed but Fletcher and Johnson plus a fee for Rose probably cost a bit more than our profit from Bent and Henderson. It looks like we didn\u2019t lose money on Turner, Angeleri or Gyan, possibly we even made some, and we did well with Kieran Richardson.<\/p>\n

At the same time some expensive residual transfer payments and wages, such as Craig Gordon\u2019s, will now be off the books. I\u2019d say the owner, Ellis Short, and MON have maintained the financial well-being of the club while improving the squad in the short term and creating space for the future.<\/p>\n

A lot of that has to be down to MON for his playing of the transfer market. I think he got it just about right.<\/p>\n

Maybe he\u2019d read the book.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

John McCormick\u00a0has been giving a lot of thought to Martin O\u2019Neill\u2019s dealings in the transfer market and the part a study of football economics, with a title and at least one turn of phrase to make you wince, may have played in guiding his hand\u2026 Now that\u00a0the transfer window has closed how do you feel? […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":130,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":false,"apple_news_is_paid":false,"apple_news_is_preview":false,"apple_news_is_sponsored":false,"apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":"\"\"","apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[51,22],"tags":[572],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nCan Sunderland fans be happy with their summer transfer business?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.byfarthegreatestteam.com\/posts\/can-sunderland-fans-be-happy-with-their-summer-transfer-business\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can Sunderland fans be happy with their summer transfer business?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"John McCormick\u00a0has been giving a lot of thought to Martin O\u2019Neill\u2019s dealings in the transfer market and the part a study of football economics, with a title and at least one turn of phrase to make you wince, may have played in guiding his hand\u2026 Now that\u00a0the transfer window has closed how do you feel? 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