Exciting title race remains unpredictable entering home straight
A three-way title race is unfolding in the Premier League this season. We’re seeing one of the more exciting conclusions in recent years. It’s delightfully unclear with ten games to go whether Arsenal, Manchester City, or Liverpool will be champions.
Manchester City drew 1-1 at Anfield on Sunday. That result ensures that the three teams remain virtually neck and neck:
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 28 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 70 | 24 | +46 | 64 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 28 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 65 | 26 | +39 | 64 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 63 | 28 | +35 | 63 |
Back in December I predicted that Man City would win the league, with Liverpool second and Arsenal third. That was a while ago, so it’s time to take a look at the each team’s remaining fixtures and see if the picture has changed. How could the title race unfold?
Strength of Schedule
One approach is to look at the strength of the teams each side has left to play. We can examine each opponent’s Points per Game over the season so far. This allows us to assign a numerical value to each team’s fixture difficulty.
| Liverpool – 14.00 | Man City – 14.63 | Arsenal – 15.33 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton (A) | 1.50 | Arsenal (H) | 2.29 | Man City (A) | 2.25 |
| Sheff Utd (H) | 0.50 | Aston Villa (H) | 1.96 | Luton (H) | 0.78 |
| Man Utd (A) | 1.68 | Palace (A) | 1.04 | Brighton (A) | 1.50 |
| Palace (H) | 1.04 | Luton (H) | 0.78 | Aston Villa (H) | 1.96 |
| Fulham (A) | 1.25 | Tottenham (A) | 1.96 | Wolves (A) | 1.46 |
| West Ham (A) | 1.54 | Forest (A) | 0.86 | Tottenham (A) | 1.96 |
| Tottenham (H) | 1.96 | Wolves (H) | 1.46 | Bournemouth (H) | 1.19 |
| Aston Villa (A) | 1.96 | Fulham (A) | 1.25 | Man Utd (A) | 1.68 |
| Everton (A) | 1.11 | Brighton (A) | 1.50 | Chelsea (H) | 1.44 |
| Wolves (H) | 1.46 | West Ham (H) | 1.54 | Everton (H) | 1.11 |
You may already have suspected this from eyeballing the fixture list. The numbers confirm it: Liverpool’s schedule features teams which have accumulated the fewest points per game. This makes it the softest schedule. Man City’s is not much more difficult. Arsenal’s looks a little more difficult.
Of course, the game is not played on paper but this can give us an idea of what to expect if most teams see out the season in the same sort of form they’ve played in their 27 or 28 games so far – a title win for Liverpool.
Repeating Results
However, although Arsenal’s games are more difficult on paper, they have beaten many of these teams already this season.
Imagine if every one of these 30 remaining games went the way that the first meetings between those teams did this season. This would make for quite an interesting outcome:
In this case, Arsenal and Liverpool would finish level on 87 points, with Arsenal winning the title on goal difference.
If Arsenal can repeat their great results earlier in the season against many of the teams they have left to play, then this is the prize that awaits.
Man City’s Experience
Of course, that series of results includes Arsenal beating Manchester City in their next Premier League match on Easter Sunday. Manchester City, I am sure, will want to have something to say about that.
I certainly don’t expect Man City to finish 7 points behind Arsenal and Liverpool. I think it will be much closer than that.
We know from previous years that City are very capable of hitting a superb run of form at this stage of the season. They have the pedigree from a number of recent title races coordinated by Pep Guardiola.
Last season’s memorable Treble win is still fresh in the memory. I would be totally unsurprised if Man City can repeat their clutch performances from last year’s run-in. If they do, it’ll be yet more history for the Citizens as they would become the first team in the whole history of English football to win four league titles in a row.
A Title Race too Close to Call?
All of this points to a title race that is far too close to call at this stage.
The FA Cup Quarter-Finals and an international break will follow before that big game between Arsenal and Man City on 31st March. But even after that game, there will still be a lot of football left to be played.
For me, the experience and pedigree of Manchester City is still hard to look past. They are my favourites for the title. But the numbers in this post do give me some food for thought. Liverpool’s fixture list is softer than Arsenal’s – and marginally more so than Man City’s. Arsenal did the best in the earlier versions of the same fixtures.
You can construct a great story behind any of these three teams winning the Premier League this season. In the coming months one of those stories will change from fiction to reality, and into football history. It’ll be exciting to see how it unfolds.