Paris penalty could yet have big consequences
A Paris penalty robbed Newcastle of a memorable double over PSG back in November. But the decision for VAR to intervene and give the penalty that allowed Kylian Mbappé to equalise may yet have other consequences. It could have a big financial impact for other Premier League teams.
The decision was a big part of why Newcastle went out of Europe later in December. That could have big consequences on the European places available to England next season. Let’s remind ourselves of how things have unfolded.
The Incident
Paris-SG 1-1 Newcastle
Newcastle traveled to PSG on 29th November for matchday 5 of this season’s UEFA Champions League. The Magpies were hoping to repeat the heroics of their memorable 4-1 win over the same opposition on matchday 2.
Whilst the home win had seen Newcastle dominate the match, this was more of a classic away performance. Alexander Isak scored a clinical first-half goal. Newcastle defended brilliantly and Nick Pope made a number of great saves.
With time running out, it seemed Newcastle had secured a memorable double over the French champions. However, injury time had a cruel twist in store.
The Decision: Paris Penalty
As PSG pushed desperately for an equaliser, a cross deflected off the chest of Tino Livramento. The ball then ricocheted into his arm.
Referee Szymon Marciniak had been surrounded by PSG players many times during the second half. He’d needed every bit of the experience that he has gathered from refereeing huge games like the 2022 World Cup Final. And he didn’t see anything in this incident to suggest it was a penalty.
However, video assistant referee Tomasz Kwiatkowski felt differently. He instructed Marciniak to go to the screen. There, Marciniak was mainly shown a freeze-frame of the handball. The on-pitch review didn’t really look at the context of the ball coming off of Livramento’s body. Marciniak gave a penalty, which Mbappé dispatched.
I don’t think this incident merited a penalty given the existing Laws of the game. The Sky Sports Soccer Special panel said much the same:
The Aftermath
UEFA seemed to agree with me, Tim Sherwood, and the rest of the Sky team. They suspended VAR Kwiatkowski for the rest of that week’s European action. However, there was very little other follow-up on the incident. Much as with Premier League VAR issues, we’ve not heard anything about any process of systemic learning and improvement that could avoid a repeat of this mistake.
Newcastle were eliminated from Europe altogether on the next, final matchday with a 2-1 home defeat to AC Milan. Newcastle had led in the game. When Milan equalised, Newcastle went all-out for a winner. Whilst they were punished on the counter-attack, I still like this decision from Howe. Much like NFL teams going for it 4th down, I think it’s good to be bold. The rewards were great if Newcastle could have won the game and made the Last 16.
How does the Paris Penalty affect others?
In the last few days I’ve realised that this decision hasn’t just affected Newcastle’s season. It could go on to have a profound impact on other English teams too.
This is because of the new Champions League format next season. In that format, an extra Champions League place is available to each of the two countries whose teams do the best in Europe the previous season. Robbing Newcastle of this result – and of progress in Europe – might have had a crucial impact on this race for an extra Champions League place.
Coefficient Points
This is where things get technical. UEFA determines which country has done the best in Europe by using its system of coefficient points. This the same points system which is used for seeding teams during Group Stage draws in their competitions.
The core of the coefficient system is quite simple. A team is awarded:
- 2 points for every match that they win
- 1 point for every match that they draw
- Bonus points for reaching key competition milestones
The decision here took 1 coefficient point away from Newcastle and gave it to PSG. And I believe it also cost Newcastle points for being in the Last 16 of a European competition. Qualifying for the last 16 of the Champions League is worth 5 bonus points, whilst the Last 16 of the Europa League awards 1 such point.
Current Standings
Currently, England is the third-best performing country this season. This is determined by taking each team’s coefficient as described above. Then the total for each country is divided by the number of teams that qualified for Europe. So for this season, England’s total is divided by 8 as there are 8 English teams that have played in Europe.
Below I’ve created a visualisation using the current numbers from the excellent UEFA European Cup Football site by Bert Kassies. (A website that I highly recommend. It’s an outstanding resource which I have used regularly for over 20 years. Bert’s site puts UEFA’s official website to shame on this sort of technical detail.)
Without the penalty given against Newcastle in Paris, they could have progressed to the Europa League or even Champions League knockout rounds. This picture then looks radically differently with England likely ahead of Germany in the current rankings.
What does it mean?
Aston Villa and Tottenham seem set for a fierce contest for 4th place this season. But if England could secure a 5th Champions League spot, then that becomes a lot less significant.
Similarly, if 5th place is also a Champions League space, then Manchester United look much more likely to qualify than at present. They are trying to win their way back into the 4th place conversation, and overtaking one of Spurs and Villa seems much more likely than passing them both.
This will all have a knock-on effect further down the table, too. If England does achieve a 5th Champions League place, then the existing Europa League and Conference League places will then be allocated to the next teams in the table instead.
A Big Decision
All of this highlights that this penalty decision was a huge one. It was massive not just for Newcastle, but could have a profound impact on European qualification and on the increasingly-discussed world of club finances.
Of course, we are still only talking about European qualification. It’s hard to call it the most significant decision of the season. That’s still the Tottenham-Liverpool VAR fiasco which could itself be huge in deciding this season’s already-tight title race.
Mbappé celebrated with great relief after scoring that equaliser back in November. But for many English teams the tension will only increase in coming months. They will wonder if their club could end up paying for that Paris penalty.