The purpose of my weekly column is not to showcase my expert tips on who you should bet on, but rather to highlight who you should avoid. To recap, I look at the Saturday 3pm fixtures, select an accumulator of teams that I myself will bet on, then relay these to you. These are picks that you should unequivocally avoid, as I am not a good gambler. One more time, for those skim reading this. DO NOT FOLLOW THESE PICKS! I have won about three decent accumulators in five years of gambling, always on favourites. So take my advice, look at my selections and DO NOT add them to your own selection line. Please. I am trying to help you.
I outdid my own exceedingly low expectations last weekend, where my fourfold failed on every front. The teams I bet on were St Johnstone, Wolves, Lincoln City and Everton. St Johnstone had their game called off due to a frozen pitch, while the rescheduled game on Tuesday night was also called off, this time due to a waterlogged pitch. Wolves suffered a shock home defeat to Forest, Aitor Karanka working the new manager effect rather effectively. Lincoln and Everton both dropped a couple points, meaning that my fourfold got zero winners. Bad for my bank balance, but good for you, valued reader. Hopefully this makes you take heed. Do not follow my tips!
We all remember my rules from last week, the big four. 1) Do not bet on cup matches. 2) The bookies always know – if a team’s odds are too good to be true, then there is a reason. 3) Only bet on home teams. 4) No cashing out. So, on that note, this week’s action will revolve around the FA Cup. Don’t judge me, we are all hypocrites… Anyway, enough chit-chat, read on to see the teams you must avoid this weekend. After my failures last week, we are going more ambition with a five-fold this weekend.
HUDDERSFIELD v Birmingham – 3/4
So, rule one, no betting on the cup football. Well this is painful, as game one comes courtesy of the FA Cup. A Premier League side often tinkers in the cup, especially ones that are new to the league. Premier League survival is the main aim, understandable with the financial incentives. But it is hard to get around the fact that Birmingham have been rank this year, truly quite awful. So much so that I would back even a weakened Huddersfield team to beat them, especially with Birmingham on the road. At 3/4 for such a gap between the two, it’s hard to not bet on the home side, although I would advise that you wait until the teams are announced before placing you money on the game.
Southend v SCUNTHORPE 6/4
If it looks too good to be true, it probably is. Scunthorpe are not on the best of form, picking up only 6/15 points in
their last five games. But they are 4th in the league, which means that there is evidently quality within the side. Compare this to Southend, who are 20th and on a four game losing streak. It is a long away day for the Irons, but at 6/4 it is worth a punt, in my opinion. If you could conveniently forget about the “don’t bet on the away team” rule, that would be great…
Grimsby v LUTON 10/11
Another away team here, oops. Luton are top of the league, a competitive league, and that speaks volumes. Their form has been a little erratic of late, WLWLW in recent weeks, but 17 wins in 28 league games is good going. They travel away to Grimsby, who would certainly jump at a WLWLW record. They drew their last match against Colchester United, but four defeats preceded that draw, with the side sitting 16th in the league. It won’t be a stroll in the park for Luton, but the win should happen. At close to evens it is certainly worth a punt.
HEARTS v Motherwell 10/11
Hearts are in incredible form at the moment, having gone undefeated in eleven games, and having not conceded a goal in eight matches, quite an effort given the calamitous nature of SPFL football. The problem with betting on them is that they are quite content to sit back and grind out a draw, manager Craig Levein knows that in the Scottish Premiership, it is wise to just take ones points whenever they can get them. Motherwell’s form is very up and down, yet have won just as many as Hearts this term, with eight games. The difference is draws, Hearts have drawn nine matches this year, compared to the three of ‘Well. Hearts are also undefeated at their revamped Tynecastle Park.
QUEEN OF THE SOUTH v Brechin 3/10
QOS are not on good form of late, but my god, Brechin City are on another level of suckyness. They are yet to win this
season, amassing a lowly four points all season. Anyone who follows my Scottish Championship round up will understand what I mean. Brechin try hard, and haven’t played terribly, but they just cannot see out games, and as such are on one of the worst runs in Europe this season. With the form of Queens it isn’t unimaginable to foresee Brechin grabbing a point, but I cannot see it happening. Brechin are a team of losers this year, and this should continue. 3/10 isn’t a great money-maker, but could add some stack to your coupon.
HUDDERSFIELD v Birmingham 3/4
Southend v SCUNTHORPE 6/4
Grimsby v Luton 10/11
HEARTS v Motherwell 10/11
QOS v Brechin 3/10
£5 placed at 19.73/1 returns £103.64.
The bet obviously won’t win, I mean I never win, and if you follow this then neither will you. Once again, my own rules have been broken time and time again, this may become quite a theme in this series. I need to stress that when I say you will not win, I am trying to win. I am picking games that I genuinely put my own money down on. There are justifications to why all my teams may lose, but I have faith in my selections. The idea here is that while I have faith in them, you should not!
Money spent so far: £5.
As usual, please remember to GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY.