Betting Bad Part 9: Forget the horses
Welcome back ladies and gentlemen, to another edition of Betting Bad, the world renowned (maybe) series where the premise is simple – you don’t follow my Betting tips, you use them to work out who you are going to avoid betting on! I have written eight instalments of this series since the turn of the year, with only one giving me a winner. This means that despite winning just over £50, my expenditure on the weeks I haven’t won is bringing my profit margin down lower and lower week by week. I have worked out a tasty fourfold this week that I am very confident in this weekend.
There are some hardships to get over this weekend. The Premier League fixture list has been decimated with the FA Cup, meaning that the bulk of the big teams are unselectable. The midweek games in the lower leagues mean that rhythms and routines have been upset and changed, the further down the divisions you go, teams are tired and players may get rested. The most worrisome thing is that as we enter the final quarter of the season, the teams that are close to relegation tend to wake up a bit. The realisation that their jobs are on the line hits players and upsets occur frequently.
Before I relay my predictions for this upcoming weekend, we must go through the indignity of analysing last weeks failed predictions. Livingston saw their game against Inverness called off due to a frozen pitch, but if the three games that were live in my fourfold, two won. Kilmarnock were at crazy odds of 1/1 and breezed past Ross County at home. Fulham won 1-2 away to a resilient Preston side, leaving it late as Aleksander Mitrovic bagged his winner in the 91st winner. It was Rotherham who let me down, losing at home in surprise fashion to Rochdale, fighting for their life at the bottom of the league. Of all my tips last weekend, this was the game I was actually most confident in. Alas, it was another losing week, so with that pushed firmly to the back of the mind, let’s focus more on this weekend!
WOLVES v Burton – 2/7
Admittedly this isn’t a huge money maker, but it’s top of the league against a side looking relegation dead on. The upset factor is here, undoubtedly, but after leading the league all year, Wolves are only s couple of upsets away from losing the title to Cardiff City. As such, I expect Wolves to up their game and put the boot in to Burton Albion and put three or four goals past them. I can see this game being out of sight by half time. Wolves have a squad which is capable of fighting it out in the Premiership right now, while Burton are holding on to the remnants of s squad who belong in League One. I genuinely can’t see a way that Nuno Espìrito Santos’ side won’t win here.
CHELTENHAM v Chesterfield – 4/5
Cheltenham has taken the headlines this week for the horse racing that takes place every year. Truthfully, I don’t care. Not even a little bit. But, as a nod to the event that people love to lose money on, I will back their football team this weekend. They sit 15th in League Two, while their opponents Chesterfield are 24th and looking dead set to be relegated out of the football league. This mid-table element against a side desperate for a win could go against me, but I have faith that the quality will show eventually. Cheltenham have a goal difference of -1 while Chesterfield sit on -28. At odds of close to evens this is a punt I am willing to take.
HEARTS v Partick – 1/1
Hearts aren’t in the best of form, but the team has gotten a bit of slack after a defeat to fierce rivals Hibernian last Friday night, and I can imagine manager Craig Levein will do all he can to use this to inspire the Jambos to fight for the three points this weekend. Partick Thistle just can’t get going this season, even when they get a good result, the teams around them seem to match them. They sit 11th in the league, compared to Hearts in 6th. Hearts will be desperate for the points to edge them closer to a top six spot and the chance of European football next season. This, coupled with the fact that they have an excellent record at Tynecastle since its redevelopment, should make for a decent win for Hearts this weekend.
Queen of the South v ST MIRREN – 13/10
St Mirren have gotten back to winning ways of late, after a dodgy few games, and are back in poll position to win the Scottish Championship title and return to the Scottish Premiership. The Saints are ten points clear of second placed Livingston, knowing that every win takes them closure to the title. Queen of the South are in poor form right now, and lost to Dundee United midweek to take them down to 6th place. Queens are at home, and still in the hunt for a playoff spot, so the odds of 13/10 are fair as this won’t be an easy game at all. In 27 league games this year, the Saints have only dropped points in eight, so I feel the choice to back them is fair.
Bet slip
WOLVES v Burton – 2/7
CHELTENHAM v Chesterfield – 4/5
HEARTS v Partick – 1/1
Queen of the South v ST MIRREN – 13/10
£5 bet placed at 9.65/1 returns £53.23
I am very confident for three games here. Wolves will beat Burton. Hearts should beat Partick and St Mirren should see off Queen of the South. But it’s that pesky Cheltenham game which could be the trouble maker there. In hindsight, picking a team purely because there is an unrelated event happening in the same town is a little risky… they should win, based on the table, but as I said near the beginning, we are approaching the stage of the season where the struggling sides tend to up their game. Best of luck to all gamblers this weekend, whether you’re following my selections or not! Don’t be afraid to reply to @byfarblog with your own opinions on my four fold this weekend.
Money spent so far: £40
Winnings: £53.08
Profit – loss: £18.08
Do remember to gamble responsibly this weekend ladies and gentlemen!