Premier League Top 8 battle heats up with Villa’s win over Man City

Wednesday night saw Aston Villa produce a fine 1-0 victory over Man City. This was just the latest in a number of interesting recent games between the Premier League Top 8.

The bottom part of the Premier League has not been the most interesting so far this season. Only a 10-point deduction for Everton for alleged financial breaches has spiced it up. Before the Toffees were dragged in by that penalty, it was seemed very likely that the three promoted teams would all be relegated back to the Championship come May.

There’s still a lot of football to be played this season but the Premier League’s Top 8 is looking a different proposition.

In past years I’ve felt that sports broadcasters have over-hyped how competitive the Premier League is. A few shock results, plus the once-a-century event of Leicester winning the Premier League, are often exaggerated to make the league seem more competitive than it is. This season, however, is shaping up differently – at least in the early running.

The Premier League Top 8

Arsenal

Current League Position: 1st
Best Attribute: Press Resistance. David Raya, William Saliba, Declan Rice, and Martin Ødegaard give Arsenal a spine of real quality in possession even against a high press.
Need to Improve: Goalkeeping. The addition of David Raya may have helped with Arsenal’s build-up play. However, he looks very suspect from crosses. His signing has created unwanted noise about his merits vs. those of last year’s starter Aaron Ramsdale.
Prediction: 3rd. Arsenal will push Man City close just like last year. However, I think they’re still outsiders for the title. They would want a more commanding lead at this stage of the season to be truly confident. Arsenal are building in the right direction, however, and I think a top-3 finish is very likely. They must ignore talk of “bottling” and keep progressing.

Liverpool

Current League Position: 2nd
Best Attribute: Resilience. The Reds don’t know when they are beaten this season. Their only loss came courtesy of the VAR fiasco they suffered at Tottenham.
Need to Improve: Control of games. There’s nothing quite like Klopp’s team at their swashbuckling best. However, they do concede a lot of chances to the opposition. If they want to win the title, they need to tighten things up a little.
Prediction: 2nd. I think Liverpool will be comfortably top four and have a big chance of winning the Europa League. I’m not sure if they can outpace City this year, but 2nd and a Cup win seems likely.

Aston Villa

Current League Position: 3rd
Best Attribute: Balance. The Villans are superbly juggling the demands of European and domestic football this season. Manager Unai Emery is a master at this and has a fantastic European record.
Need to Improve: Squad depth. Villa have done well without the likes of Tyrone Mings for long spells this season. However, it’s a long season and I think they need a bit more firepower if they’re to cope with the inevitable injuries and loss of form.
Prediction: 4th. With Emery at the helm, don’t be surprised if they go all the way in the Europa Conference League, either.

Manchester City

Current League Position: 4th
Best Attribute: Winners. Masterminded by Pep Guardiola and with quality players in every position, Man City have been there and done it before. They won the Treble last season.
Need to Improve: Discipline. Hopefully Man City can get Kevin de Bruyne back to his brilliant best in the second half of the season. He’s been missing through injury, but Rodri has missed games already through suspension. City really struggled to win with both of these midfielders unavailable.
Prediction: 1st. We haven’t seen the best of Man City this season. In recent years they always have a big push in the new year where they go on a winning run. It’s got to the point where we actually expect that to happen. They’re still my favourites to win the title. That would be a piece of history. No team before has ever won four league titles in a row, in the whole history of English football.

Tottenham Hotspur

Current League Position: 5th
Best Attribute: Chance Creation. Spurs have made light work of many of the bottom-half teams they’ve played this season. Even against a low block, they seem to have plenty of ability to create.
Need to Improve: Reliance on key players. Of all the teams in this top 8, Spurs seem to miss players the most when they’re not available. They’ve been wobbling since James Maddison got injured – although to be fair, they’ve played some tougher games too.
Prediction: 6th. Spurs have turned things around quicker than many expected. They will have more difficult spells this season. In fact, they might be in one right now. I think top 6 would be a great outcome for them this season.

Manchester United

Current League Position: 6th
Best Attribute: Point accumulation. Man Utd are unbelievably good against bottom-half sides. They simply don’t get held to draws and seem to win even when not playing well.
Need to Improve: Performances vs. other top-8 sides. They’ve not been competitive in these games. The scrutiny on the club and Erik ten Hag is massive every time they lose another of these games. They need to find a way to win more of these games.
Prediction: 7th. I think Man Utd are going to struggle to finish higher this season. I don’t think they’re worse than last season, I just think everyone else has got better.

Newcastle United

Current League Position: 7th
Best Attribute: Full backs. Kieran Trippier is already one of the best in the business. This season has seen Tino Livramento emerge and with the two on the pitch together Newcastle have a serious threat in wide areas – especially as wide forwards Gordon and Almiron aren’t bad either!
Need to Improve: Newcastle’s injury record at the moment is unsustainable. If they lose many more players they will be dipping into a youth team that hasn’t produced a lot of players in recent years. They need to get players back fit if they’re going to try to push higher up the table in the second half of the season.
Prediction: 5th. Provided Newcastle can get players back fit, I expect them to progress up the table in the new year. Their performances so far have been better than their record suggests. They should do better once fixture congestion eases. 5th also should be enough to qualify for the Champions League’s new format next season.

Brighton and Hove Albion

Current League Position: 8th
Best Attribute: Talent supply. Brighton are the best run club in the league as a total front office. Their ability to keep finding Premier League quality players is unsurpassed. They have a far smaller budget than the other 7 teams here but don’t look out of place playing against them.
Need to Improve: It’d be great to see Brighton keep hold of players. Whilst they do a great job at replacing those they sell, they are constantly setting themselves a huge challenge to compete with bigger-budget teams. I hope Evan Ferguson can be kept at the club for longer than other recent stars.
Prediction: 8th. Brighton are a fantastic, model club, but I’m not sure they have the resources to push higher in a challenging year this year.

The Big Eight?

I’ve put my neck on the line above by making several bold predictions. I could easily be completely wrong, however, because this is one of the most competitive seasons we’ve seen at the top of the league.

I do think that in the end, Manchester City will retain the title. In many respects, that will make the league seem less competitive than ever. Nobody before has ever won four titles in a row.

However, in terms of the battle below City for the European places, I think the league is in better health than in recent years. The emergence of Aston Villa, Brighton, and Newcastle to challenge the existing hierarchy is a major positive. It also means there are many more big, exciting, and unpredictable games than in previous years.

I didn’t even cover Chelsea, who have imported the “total rebuild with young players” approach from US sports. If they can pull that off and challenge for the European places themselves in the next year or two, it might be the most unpredictable top half of the Premier League that we’ve seen. That can only be a good thing for fans.

The Premier League this season is giving me the vibe of Serie A during the 1990s, with some amazing teams and players to watch – not just one or two super-teams like in most European leagues in recent years. That’s fantastic and we should enjoy what could be a great season for the Premier League Top 8 in particular.