Tartan Army party as Scotland qualify for Euro 2024

This weekend saw Scotland qualify for Euro 2024. Spain’s 1-0 win over Norway sealed the deal. This means Scotland are amongst the first seven teams to qualify for the tournament.

Scotland’s Great Form

Scotland had set up the opportunity for a Spanish win to qualify them this weekend. They have been in great form in qualifying:

• 3-0 vs. 🇨🇾 Cyprus (H)
• 2-0 vs. 🇪🇸 Spain (H)
• 2-1 vs. 🇳🇴 Norway (A)
• 2-0 vs. 🇬🇪 Georgia (H)
• 3-0 vs. 🇨🇾 Cyprus (A)
• 0-2 vs. 🇪🇸 Spain (A)

This is a great performance in a difficult group. Winning the home game against Spain was a superb platform. Beating Norway and their phenomenon Erling Håland – one of the game’s rising superstars – really got fans hoping. The good form has continued and there’s no shame in losing the most difficult game in the group away to Spain.

Cause for Celebration

Scotland have a spotty record in European Championship qualifying history. The Scots first entered qualifying in 1968, and were unsuccessful in reaching the tournament proper. That has been largely the pattern since. The only successful qualification campaigns before this year came in 1992, 1996, and 2020.

As a result, this latest qualification is definitely cause for celebration. The Tartan Army, out in Lille for a friendly with France tonight, were quick to do exactly that:

“Germany, Germany…” 🎵🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿✈️🇩🇪

Here’s the moment the Tartan Army over in Lille celebrated Scotland’s Euro 2024 qualification 🥳
— BBC Sport Scotland (@BBCSportScot) Oct 15, 2023

A Big Achievement? Putting Things in Context

One question of course will be how big an achievement this for Scotland.

In some past periods, Scotland underachieved internationally. The 1967 Celtic team, all from Scotland, memorably won the European Cup in 1967. The 1960s and 70s saw many Scottish players star for English teams in Europe too. I feel they will regret not doing more as a national team in this period.

Today’s game, of course, is very different. Scotland’s league is not as strong within Europe due to the changing financial landscape of the game. However, I’ve also seen people argue that Scotland (and indeed Wales) have only qualified for European Championships recently because of expanding tournaments. I feel this does a disservice both to Scotland’s history – where I feel they were good enough to qualify – but also to this team.

Whilst globally there are big exceptions – notably China and India – amongst European teams there is broad correlation between population and national team results. We can see this in this graph:

As the trend line shows, there’s a definite correlation between larger populations and points collected per game in this qualifying competition. The teams in the rightmost section of the graph, including 🇫🇷 France, 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England, 🇮🇹 Italy, and 🇪🇸 Spain, should be looking to qualify for every European Championships. It is a big story if one of them is absent.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland find themselves in a secondary group of teams. These are potential qualifiers, but nothing is guaranteed. Within this group, Scotland have definitely punched above their weight in Euro 2024 qualifying. We can see that they are well over the trend line for the whole of UEFA when comparing results and population. 2.5 points per game is a fantastic return. They deserve a place at the tournament and would be in contention even in the old 16-team format.

The Other UK Nations

Scotland are the first UK national team to qualify for the Euros. Two others are still in contention to join them:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England can qualify for Euro 2024 later tonight if they beat or draw with Italy at Wembley. A loss wouldn’t end their chances either, as they play games against Malta and North Macedonia as they race Italy and Ukraine for two spaces between the three teams.
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales beat Croatia on Saturday to spark fresh hopes of qualifying. They have remaining matches against Armenia and Turkey. If they fail in this qualifying group, they will have an extra chance through a playoff that they look likely to qualify for through their UEFA Nations League results.
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Northern Ireland have unfortunately failed to qualify.

If England and Wales were both to qualify then there’s a good chance we will see some UK nations playing one another at Euro 2024. This will be a familiar feeling as England played Scotland and Wales during the last two tournaments and Wales also faced Northern Ireland at Euro 2016. These occasions add some extra spice to group stage encounters in particular and it’ll be great if we get to see at least one.

Scotland’s Hopes for Euro 2024

Now that Scotland have qualified for Euro 2024, they’ll look forward to the tournament and what they can achieve there.

The draw for the group stages will take place on Saturday 2nd December. Teams are seeded and Scotland can expect to find themselves in pot 2 or 3 for the draw. There’s the possibility they could be drawn in Group A alongside hosts Germany, and even that they could play in the tournament’s opening game on 14th June 2024.

Scotland fans will be keen to see them win a game in the group stage. Whilst they played well in a 0-0 draw with England at Euro 2020, they didn’t win a game which means they’ve not done so in the competition since a 1-0 win over Switzerland at Euro ’96.

However, going all out to win a game might not necessarily be the best approach. Some third-placed teams now reach the knockout rounds, and so defensive solidity can be key. Portugal showed this in Euro 2016 as they won the competition winning only one game – the Semi-Final against Wales – before the Final. Scotland’s qualifying results have seen them concede in only two of their matches. This defensive record bodes very well and could be the platform that Scotland need to finally get beyond the group stages for the first time.